The trade became obvious too late

The trade looked obvious right up until everyone agreed.

That is not a complaint about the crowd. It is a description of how the payout works. Early, you are paid to be uncomfortable. Late, you are paid in reassurance, which does not compound. Consensus is usually most comfortable near the point where the asymmetry disappears, and comfort is the most expensive thing on the menu.

The practical test I keep coming back to: can I state the other side without sneering? If the bear case only exists in my notes as a strawman, I do not own a thesis, I own a mood. Writing the opposing case in the same font, at the same length, has killed more of my bad positions than any indicator.

None of which means selling into every consensus. Some crowds are right for a long time. It means knowing which part of the payout you are being handed, and sizing for that part rather than the one you enjoyed reading about.