Old Books, New Cycles

Every cycle insists that this time the old rules have expired.

The technology may be new. The interfaces are faster. The vocabulary changes before most people finish learning the previous version. But the shelves are full of evidence that human incentives age more slowly.

Fear still arrives late and leaves early. Leverage still feels intelligent on the way up. Crowds still confuse agreement with safety. Memory still shortens when prices move quickly.

Used books are useful because they carry the confidence of another era. Some predictions failed immediately. Others survived because they were never really about the product or the ticker. They were about behavior.

I am interested in new systems. I am skeptical of claims that a new system has made old instincts irrelevant.

The market does not repeat perfectly. People do not need it to.

Rhymes are enough.